Deutsche Telekom's record results have two weak spots

What it’s about

Deutsche Telekom is in its strongest stock-market shape in two decades. Around eleven percent up since the start of 2025, the highest dividend in company history is being paid out, US subsidiary T-Mobile is the world’s most valuable telecoms company. Timotheus Höttges has an impressive record. And yet the analysis of the numbers reveals two structural weaknesses that are easily overlooked in all the cheering.

Weak spot one: US dependency

Roughly two thirds of revenue and two thirds of operating profit come from T-Mobile US. That is impressive – as long as it lasts. But it also means: Deutsche Telekom is, in effect, a US company with a German head office. In an era of an erratic Trump administration, possible tariff threats, wobbling interest-rate policy and geopolitical disruption, that concentration is a risk. A regulatory intervention in the US could hit the company harder than any currency swing.

Weak spot two: the German market

At home, Deutsche Telekom is growing more slowly than hoped. Competitor 1&1 is building its own mobile network with billions in investment. Vodafone is moving into fibre with new offerings. At the same time, the German rollout continues to lag plan. For the home market this means: margins are under pressure, and that at exactly the moment when Deutsche Telekom would urgently need investment capital for the next infrastructure generation.

What shareholders should know

A record dividend and share buybacks are attractive in the short term. But long-term, Deutsche Telekom needs a stronger European base, especially in the home market. Concentration on the US is not the same as sustainable growth. A second European leg – through consolidation, partnerships or organic growth – would be strategically advisable. The question is whether Höttges will tackle that in his remaining time at the top. Seven charts trace the weaknesses in Handelsblatt.

I wrote the full piece for Handelsblatt. This is a first impression.